The shooting, along with Donald Trump’s defiant reaction immediately afterward, will undoubtedly impact the election. However, just as Ronald Reagan’s re-election followed his shooting 40 years ago, the question remains: will this incident help or hinder the former president?
Courage, defiance, or a reckless play for the cameras even in the height of danger.
However it is viewed, the footage of Donald Trump refusing to leave the stage before showing supporters a clenched fist will now help define his campaign for re-election. The scene is extraordinary: the former president, just shot through his ear, with his Secret Service detail begging him to move. “Let me get my shoes on,” he repeatedly says, as they urge, “We’ve got to move you to the car.” His agents, trained to protect him with their bodies, were doing exactly that.
But Donald Trump did not move with them to safety. “Wait, wait, wait, wait,” he insisted repeatedly, only allowing himself to be rushed away once cameras had a clear shot of his gesture of defiance.
There are already comparisons to Ronald Reagan, the last president to survive being shot in 1981. Reagan, who joked, “Honey, I forgot to duck,” to his wife and, “Please tell me you’re all Republicans,” to his surgeons before emergency surgery, was later re-elected. Will this moment and Trump’s response similarly exalt him in the eyes of voters? Will it help or hinder his effort to become president again?
American politics can be gladiatorial. Trump’s supporters will argue he showed true grit, emphasizing that in America, it’s not about being knocked down but how you get back up. Admirers will say he stood his ground and projected courage, unfavorably comparing this to his rival. Critics, however, may accuse him of endangering his guards for precious seconds while seizing a photo opportunity amid danger.
The key question is what impact this will have on undecided voters whose support he needs to win back the White House. Will they be reassured by his apparent resilience or view the attack as a portent of future turmoil under a second Trump term? Swing voters may see his clenched fist as a symbol of strength or as a glimpse of a polarizing president who stokes division.
Predictions vary, but it is too soon to tell. This extraordinary moment could play out in several ways. Political violence in America is as old as its democracy, and its impact on Trump as a candidate, campaigner, and man remains to be seen. Assassination attempts leave their mark, as seen with survivors like Reagan and Margaret Thatcher. The disciplined Trump of 2024 contrasts with the tumultuous campaigner of eight years ago, a change that has reassured voters.
Could this attempt on his life disrupt that relative composure? How it affects him emotionally and psychologically will also influence the political outcome.
